Overview
- Rystad Energy estimates at least $25 billion is needed to fix damaged LNG plants, refineries, fuel terminals, and gas‑to‑liquids sites across the Gulf, with costs likely to rise as work scales up.
- Qatar’s Ras Laffan declared force majeure after two LNG trains were destroyed, cutting capacity by about 17%, and full recovery could take up to five years because the giant gas turbines needed have multi‑year backlogs at a few global suppliers.
- Bahrain’s BAPCO Sitra refinery reported hits to two crude distillation units and a tank farm and declared force majeure, complicating a restart just months after a $7 billion upgrade and raising the odds of costly re‑mobilization under war‑risk insurance.
- France’s finance minister said 30% to 40% of Gulf refining capacity is damaged or destroyed, implying an oil products shortfall near 11 million barrels per day and adding pressure on Europe as officials hunt replacement fuel and brace for inflation.
- Recovery speed hinges on execution capacity and access to contractors, with Saudi Aramco’s quick Ras Tanura restart showing the edge of strong local teams as Iran faces slower, pricier repairs that rely on Chinese and domestic firms under sanctions.