Overview
- The SVR said NGOs and 'democratization' agencies in the US, UK, Germany, Poland and other European states are building capabilities to change Belarus’s constitutional order.
- Russian intelligence claimed the alleged effort seeks to loosen Minsk’s ties to Moscow within the Union State and to complicate Russia’s special military operation.
- The SVR asserted Western actors plan an 'inventory' of Belarusian opposition figures to influence the 2030 presidential election, focusing on those angry at President Alexander Lukashenko.
- The service disparaged exiled leaders led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as ineffective and said Belarus had overcome the 2020 crisis, citing Ukraine and Moldova as cautionary examples.
- Belarusian lawmaker Oleg Gaidukevich backed the SVR narrative and predicted an active phase around the 2029 single election day and the 2030 presidential contest.