Overview
- Industry sources reported that crude and condensate production rose by about 100,000 barrels per day in July, pushing reported output above 9 million barrels a day.
- Accurate totals remain uncertain because Russia stopped publishing official production data, so current figures rely on anonymous industry estimates and external trackers.
- The IEA projects lower annual averages near 8.9 million bpd for 2026 and 8.8 million bpd for 2027, which suggests the July gain could be a short-lived monthly rebound.
- Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged refineries, forcing suspensions and fires that cut domestic processing and led Russia to import fuels and restrict some diesel exports.
- The EU's July sanctions broaden penalties to include crypto operators tied to oil deals, narrowing a sanctions-evasion route and raising compliance pressure on exchanges and OTC desks.