Overview
- The Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 14.5% in a Friday decision that cited weak growth and high external uncertainty, and it flagged only gradual easing unless inflation drops to 4% and unemployment rises.
- Official data show the economy shrank 1.8% in January and February, and President Vladimir Putin pressed his cabinet for fast plans to lift growth.
- Oil receipts surged in March and April as prices jumped, with the IEA and Reuters reporting a near doubling of revenue that offered the budget a short reprieve.
- Ukrainian strikes on refineries and ports have hurt energy flows, with Kommersant and Reuters noting April exports at multi‑month lows and output down 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, while Zelensky estimated March losses at about $2.3 billion.
- Stress in construction is mounting, as the developer Samoljot failed to secure a state loan and VTB’s chief said a turnaround could take years, underscoring the squeeze from costly credit and labor shortages.