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Russia Conditions Nuclear Limits on U.S. Compliance as Europe Weighs a Deterrence Gap

European experts warn there is no easy substitute for the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

Overview

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lawrow said Moscow will keep its arsenal within New START ceilings only as long as the United States also stays within those limits.
  • The New START treaty expired on February 5, and both sides signal interest in a successor framework as Washington seeks to include China, which Beijing rejects.
  • An expert report set for the Munich Security Conference outlines five paths for Europe’s security posture yet concludes none offers a fully credible solution.
  • France’s force de frappe remains under national control and lacks tactical options comparable to U.S. B61 bombs, limiting its ability to replace U.S. extended deterrence.
  • ICAN reports roughly 100 U.S. B61 gravity bombs are stored in five European countries, including about 15 at Germany’s Büchel base, under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements.