Overview
- The government announced on Monday an immediate ban on aviation and jet-fuel exports that runs through November 30, 2026 and exempts deliveries covered by existing intergovernmental agreements.
- Officials tied the move to a sharp drop in refining, with energy analytics firm OilX estimating Russian refinery runs fell to about 4.69 million barrels per day in April after a campaign of strikes on refineries.
- The restriction stops rail shipments that had supplied Central Asian states such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, raising short-term regional supply concerns.
- Analysts say the ban is unlikely to materially tighten the global jet-fuel market because Russia's overseas jet-fuel volumes are relatively small, though prior gasoline export curbs have had bigger market impact.
- Authorities will be watched for signs of domestic rationing and for how exemptions under intergovernmental contracts are applied, which will show how Moscow balances fuel security with diplomatic and contractual ties.