Overview
- Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak disclosed Thursday at the St Petersburg forum that oil production this year is lower than at the start of 2026 because several refineries are undergoing unscheduled repairs.
- Independent data from the International Energy Agency and industry sources show a meaningful near-term drop in output, with the IEA estimating April crude production was about 460,000 barrels per day below last year.
- Refinery outages have pushed Moscow to send more crude abroad, with western-port crude shipments reported to have risen about 15% in May as refining throughput fell.
- The Kremlin has tightened controls on refined fuels to protect domestic supply, including a reported ban on jet-fuel exports through November 30, 2026, and earlier limits on gasoline exports.
- Analysts say the strikes and export rules will reshape flows and prices regionally and could squeeze domestic transport and aviation fuel availability in Russia until damaged refineries return to full operation.