Overview
- The rupee strengthened to about 92.62 per dollar as reports of a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire knocked Brent prices down by roughly 14% and lifted risk appetite.
- Following last Thursday’s outsized rebound, the currency traded as strong as 92.79 and finished near 93.00 on Monday, reflecting continued position unwinds by banks.
- The RBI has capped banks’ net open foreign‑exchange positions at $100 million and barred lenders from offering offshore non‑deliverable forwards to clients, forcing dollar position cuts by an April 10 deadline and breaking the onshore–offshore arbitrage link.
- Those curbs spurred onshore dollar selling and a fall in forward premiums and volatility, easing hedging costs for importers even as foreign investors kept pulling money and weekly reserves dropped by over $10 billion to $688.06 billion in data for March 27.
- Traders now look to the RBI policy decision, with most expecting rates to stay on hold, and they are watching whether the ceasefire holds because a fresh jump in oil or renewed outflows could quickly revive pressure on the rupee.