Overview
- The currency slipped to about 90.07 per dollar in early Wednesday trade before settling provisionally at 89.96, after rebounding on Tuesday from last week’s record intraday low near 90.42.
- Markets largely expect a 25 bps US Federal Reserve rate cut later Wednesday, with guidance seen as the key driver for the dollar and an INR range many traders place between roughly 89.5 and 91.0.
- US–India trade talks opened on December 10 with a delegation led by Deputy USTR Rick Switzer, as tariff uncertainty and stalled progress have weighed on flows into Indian assets.
- The RBI is intervening through calibrated spot dollar sales and has scheduled a $5 billion three‑year swap for December 16 alongside liquidity injections, though prior forward sales and reserve composition limit flexibility.
- Foreign portfolio investors continue to sell equities and offshore NDF markets show persistent long‑dollar positioning, leaving the rupee one of Asia’s weakest performers this year.