Overview
- India’s currency closed at 88.58 per dollar on Nov. 19 after an intraday high near 88.41, staying confined to the mid‑88 range seen in recent sessions.
- Offshore options positioning has tilted bullish, with one‑ and three‑month risk reversals at about -0.7 and -0.4 as investors pay up for rupee‑upside structures.
- Citi has flagged a three‑month options trade looking for gains toward 87–86.5 per dollar and Goldman Sachs has proposed a longer‑dated structure capped near 85.50, while Societe Generale has turned more positive.
- Frequent central‑bank intervention, sustained importer dollar demand, a record October trade deficit of $41.68 billion, lower FX reserves, and recent FII equity outflows continue to cap appreciation.
- Optimism has been underpinned by public signals on talks, including President Donald Trump’s remarks that a deal is “coming soon” and Minister Piyush Goyal’s comment that good news will follow a fair, balanced pact.