Overview
- The rupee, which briefly slid to a record 95.22 per dollar on Monday, later steadied near 94.70 in volatile trade driven by heavy oil demand for dollars and persistent foreign selling.
- The Reserve Bank of India capped banks’ end-of-day rupee exposures at $100 million under a March 27 circular with an April 10 deadline, a step aimed at forcing lenders to cut large directional dollar positions.
- SBI Research urged using India’s $700 billion-plus reserves and creating a special dollar window for oil marketing companies, noting that unwinding by banks has lifted offshore non-deliverable forward premia to about 4.19% and pushed offshore quotes near Rs 98.41.
- Strategists cited by Bloomberg said a slide to 100 per dollar is now a credible risk if war and high crude persist, with options pricing showing roughly a 13% chance by June and about 41% by year-end.
- The rupee fell about 9.9% in FY26, its steepest drop in 14 years, as pricier oil raised India’s import bill and inflation risks and as global investors pulled large sums from equities, with officials saying fundamentals remain strong.