Overview
- Emerson College’s national poll released May 28 finds Vice President JD Vance at 36% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35% among likely Republican primary voters, a statistical tie in an expanded field.
- The change represents a roughly 15‑point swing since February when Vance led about 52% to Rubio’s 20%, signaling a rapid realignment in GOP preferences over recent months.
- An Overton Insights head‑to‑head released the same week shows Rubio ahead 42% to 36% in a two‑candidate matchup and crosstabs show Rubio outpacing Vance with younger Republicans, Hispanic voters, and better‑educated GOP voters.
- Rubio’s rise has tracked with higher White House visibility and market signals that bettors view his chances more favorably, with Kalshi odds cited as moving from about 11% in January to roughly 30% in late May; national polling finds Rubio slightly underwater overall but with strong Republican approval.
- Democrats remain fragmented with Pete Buttigieg leading at 18% in Emerson’s testing, voters oppose U.S. military intervention in Cuba, and Democrats hold a nine‑point edge on the generic congressional ballot, context that will shape both parties’ 2028 strategies.