Overview
- The Emerson College national poll released May 28 shows Vice President JD Vance at 36% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35% among likely Republican primary voters, a statistical tie with 15% undecided.
- Rubio’s rise is reflected in prediction markets and analyst commentary, with Kalshi odds rising from about 11% in January to roughly 30% by late May and CNN analyst Harry Enten noting growing Republican support for Rubio.
- A separate Overton head‑to‑head test finds Rubio leading Vance 42% to 36%, and cross‑tabs show Rubio with advantages among younger voters under 55, better‑educated Republicans, Hispanics, and parents.
- Neither Vance nor Rubio has announced a 2028 campaign, and Vance’s team has publicly rejected reports that he is reconsidering a run after reporting of internal isolation in the White House.
- President Trump’s public testing of successors and the administration’s handling of major issues such as the war in Iran and the economy mean these early signals could change as coalitions and policy stances crystallize before 2028.