Overview
- RTE now projects 2035 electricity use in a 505–580 TWh range, about 35 TWh lower than its 2023 forecast depending on the pace of decarbonization.
- The temporary surplus stems from a rebound in nuclear and hydropower alongside growing renewables while electrification of demand has lagged.
- Near-term overcapacity is pushing wholesale prices down and boosting exports, but a prolonged gap could undermine producers’ economics.
- RTE urges faster electrification in transport, industry, buildings and hydrogen to absorb capacity and reduce costly fossil-fuel imports, citing annual outlays of roughly €50–70 billion including €64 billion in 2024.
- If demand fails to pick up, RTE cites a proportionate, short-term slowdown of some renewables—especially small solar—as a fallback, while the government prepares the PPE and the EU advances stronger cross-border grid planning and permitting.