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2w ago

Rove Says Small Democratic Lead May Not Produce Large House Gain

Rove says redistricting, voter geography, GOP turnout shifts, poll margins and presidential approval dynamics require Democrats to hold roughly a five- to six-point edge to win a decisive House majority.

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The LBJ Presidential Library and the Texas Book Festival co-hosted an evening with GOP political consultant Karl Rove on Tuesday, December 1, 2015. Rove discussed his forthcoming book, The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the Election of 1896 Still Matters, with LBJ Library Director Mark Updegrove. Rove talked about the political climate in 1896, what lessons both political parties can learn from McKinley, and the already active 2016 election season. Prior to the event, The Store at LBJ hosted a book signing of Rove’s The Triumph of William McKinley.   Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000-2007 and was White House Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004-2007. He now writes a weekly op-ed column for The Wall Street Journal and is a Fox News contributor. His previous book, Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight, was a New York Times bestseller. LBJ Library photo by Jay Godwin

Overview

  • The Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found the generic congressional ballot among likely voters essentially tied at 49% Democratic to 48% Republican.
  • Karl Rove told Fox News on Thursday that a one-point Democratic edge is insufficient and that Democrats would likely need about a five- to six-point lead for a clear House takeover.
  • Rove based his view on mid‑decade redistricting that modestly favored Republicans and on the geographic concentration of Democratic voters in heavily urban districts.
  • The Marquette survey also showed rising GOP turnout enthusiasm, with Republican certainty to vote up to 59% and Democratic certainty down to 58% from 67% in April.
  • President Trump publicly rebuked Rove on Truth Social Thursday, reflecting a public GOP dispute over messaging and turnout strategy as razor-thin congressional majorities and midterm trends put control at stake.