Overview
- Roblox shares dropped 18% to about $45 after the guidance cut and are down roughly 44% for the year.
- Management now guides bookings to $7.33–$7.6 billion, roughly 8%–12% growth, and pegs 2026 free cash flow near $1.2 billion, about 30% below prior plans.
- The company began requiring age verification in January for access to chat, and only about 51% of daily users had verified by late March, leaving many locked out of social features.
- Players who can use chat spend far more, with one analytics firm estimating up to seven times more per user, so restricted chat access has hurt engagement and bookings.
- Roblox signals a tougher second half of 2026 and does not expect chat adoption to fully recover by the key summer period, though analysts still average a Moderate Buy rating with a $74.71 price target.