Overview
- UBS cut Rivian to Sell with a $15 target and Wolfe moved to Underperform with a $16 target, arguing the late‑2025 AI rally overstates near‑term benefits.
- Shares fell about 7% to roughly $17.50 with intraday losses near 10%, then extended lower the next morning to around $17.20.
- Wolfe warned free cash flow burn could top $4 billion, while UBS projected just ~10,600 R2 deliveries in 2026, below consensus, and pushed out autonomy milestones.
- Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down 18% year over year, with Q4 deliveries off 32% as demand softened following the EV tax credit expiration.
- NHTSA disclosed a recall of 19,641 previously serviced R1S and R1T vehicles for rear toe link issues, adding to operational headwinds as R2 production and first deliveries are slated for the first half of 2026.