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Rivian Sales Plunge in California as Tesla Regains Ground

Rivian must rely on a late R2 ramp plus heavy second-half deliveries to meet its raised 2026 guidance.

Overview

  • Rivian registered 3,970 vehicles in California in the first half of 2026, a 28.3% drop from 5,540 a year earlier, placing it among the weakest performers in the state.
  • Customer deliveries of the R2 began on June 9 and an EPA filing shows Rivian expects about 5,000 R2s in California for 2026, making achievement of that target dependent on H2 production and sales.
  • Rivian reported 12,194 global deliveries in Q2 and raised full-year guidance to 65,000–70,000 vehicles, which requires roughly 45,000 deliveries in the second half to reach the midpoint.
  • Tesla recorded 45,953 California registrations in Q2, an 11.8% quarterly increase, and the Model Y remained the state's best-selling vehicle with about 54,000 registrations year to date.
  • California's market mix is shifting: the state logged roughly 86,857 new ZEVs in Q2 (about 17.8–19.1% market share) while hybrids jumped to roughly 23%, and a $3,500 first-time buyer rebate is set to start next month to help stabilize demand.