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Rising Yields and Middle East Strikes Lift Oil Above $90 as Stocks Stage a Partial Rebound

Renewed U.S.–Iran strikes lifting oil prices have pushed government yields higher, raising inflation and policy risk.

Overview

  • Global government bond yields surged to multi‑year highs after the sell‑off pushed the U.S. 10‑year yield near 4.78% and sent gilt, bund and JGB yields to levels not seen in years.
  • Oil climbed above $90 per barrel after reports of attacks on supertankers near the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation.
  • U.S. stocks recovered from a three‑day slide on Wednesday as the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closed higher while the Russell 2000 led gains, reflecting bargain buying in smaller companies.
  • The ADP private payrolls report showed just 38,000 private hires, a weak signal that, together with Fed officials’ 'wait‑and‑see' comments, eased some bond selling and softened immediate rate‑hike odds.
  • Strong second‑quarter corporate profits, heavily concentrated in AI infrastructure firms, continue to support selective equity gains even as elevated yields and energy risk keep broader markets fragile.