Overview
- BTIG’s mid-July industry preview, issued Monday, estimates Q2 origination volume across its coverage universe at $154.5 billion, a roughly 3% quarter-to-quarter increase that still falls below consensus.
- The bank expects origination volume to drop about 3% in Q3, and warns that third-quarter guidance for nonbank lenders is skewed to the downside because higher rates are suppressing borrower demand.
- Slower prepayment speeds in Q2 materially extended mortgage servicing rights (MSR) lives—conventional CPRs fell to about 8.8% and government CPRs to about 11.9%—which reduced amortization and produced positive servicing marks and higher servicing income.
- Company outcomes diverged: BTIG projects loanDepot to post the highest gain-on-sale margins, expects Rocket to likely reclaim the No. 1 originator spot over UWM, and flags PennyMac for weaker volumes and Onity for stronger MSR-driven results.
- BTIG also predicts negative fair-value marks for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s retained portfolios as rates rose, and it warns that rising leverage at UWM could force MSR sales or a dividend cut, making upcoming earnings calls key to investor outcomes.