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9h ago

Rising Ocean Heat and a Super El Niño Raise Odds 2026 Could Become Hottest Year

A forecasted strong El Niño would add a short-term temperature boost to already elevated greenhouse-gas-driven heat, raising near-term risks for extreme heat.

FILE - Usually submerged areas of the Danube River are exposed amid a drought in Rasova, Romania, Monday, Aug. 3 2026. (AP Photo/ Vadim Ghirda, File)
FILE - Firefighters approach towering flames on Mount Kithairon near Porto Germeno, northwest of Athens, Greece, Aug. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris, File)
Climate researchers say rising global temperatures, expanding marine heat waves and increasingly severe wildfires highlight the growing influence of human-caused climate change, with El Niño expected to add even more heat later this year. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File)
FILE - Tourists take shelter as they walk in front of the Rome'a ancient Colosseum, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino, File)

Overview

  • Global records show 2026 is the third-hottest year to date, trailing 2024 and 2025.
  • Berkeley Earth scientist Zeke Hausfather has raised the probability that 2026 will overtake 2024 to about 35 percent after recent ocean and model updates reported Tuesday.
  • Europe’s Copernicus climate service reports roughly 82 percent of the world’s ocean surface has experienced marine heat waves this year, and ocean heat normally raises global air temperatures after a several-week lag.
  • Scientists say the intense heat waves, wildfires and unusually warm nights this summer are mainly driven by long-term human-caused warming, with El Niño’s full warming effects still expected to arrive later this year.
  • Many researchers warn that even if 2026 sets a new record, 2027 is very likely to be hotter because accumulated ocean heat and the projected strong El Niño will ride on top of a higher greenhouse-gas baseline.