Rio Study Finds 4 Million Live Under Armed Rule, With CV Dominant

Overview

• The new Mapa Histórico reports about 4 million residents in the Rio metropolitan area under control or influence of armed groups, equal to 34.9% of the population and 18.1% of the urbanized area.
• Comando Vermelho holds the most stable territorial control, commanding roughly 150 km² and about 1.6 million people, with researchers noting a continued phase of expansion.
• When areas of influence are included, militias occupy the largest territorial footprint at 49.4% of controlled or influenced zones (about 201 km²) after an 18‑year growth of more than 500%, though they have retrenched since 2020.
• The study links armed rule to deep inequality, finding average per‑capita income of R$1,121 in controlled areas versus R$1,658 elsewhere and noting that 69% of residents under control are Black, Brown or Indigenous.
• Federal Operation Zagun recently led to the arrest of Alerj president Rodrigo Bacellar for alleged obstruction tied to a CV probe, while state police are refining maps that distinguish full domain from influence using red and orange zones.