Overview
- A weekly SWG tracker, with fieldwork from July 22–27, finds Fratelli d’Italia at about 27% while Futuro Nazionale has risen to roughly 6.7–6.9%.
- Forza Italia is reported near 7.6% and Lega around 5.7%, while the centre‑left parties PD and Movimento 5 Stelle slip to about 20.9% and 12.9% respectively and Avs rises to about 6.5%.
- When the current government’s centre‑right partners are summed they reach roughly 41.1%, below the 42% level tied to the proposed electoral majority bonus and short of a standalone governing majority.
- The survey used a sample of 1,200 respondents and a reported margin of error of ±2.8% at 95% confidence, so the small weekly shifts are within likely sampling variation and should be treated cautiously.
- If Futuro Nazionale runs with the centre‑right, its current support could alter seat math and coalition bargaining over candidate lists and policy priorities, making tactical alignments a key thing to watch ahead of any vote.