Overview
- Official figures show around half of eligible voters had cast ballots by 12:00, including roughly 34% by mail and about 16% in person during the first four hours.
- Pre‑election polling places the CDU narrowly ahead of the SPD — 29% to 27% in the latest ZDF Politbarometer — keeping the race within the margin for late shifts.
- Surveys suggest the AfD could significantly increase its vote share to take third place, while the Greens hover near 9% and both the Free Voters and the Left sit near the 5% hurdle.
- The FDP risks falling below 5%, which would likely rule out a continuation of the state’s traffic‑light coalition and raise the prospects of a CDU–SPD government.
- The contest is viewed as a mood test for federal politics about ten months into the Berlin coalition, with only about 29% in the state expressing satisfaction with both Merz and Klingbeil, according to ARD analysis.