RFK Jr. Weighs Vaccine Changes as Stanford Model Warns of Deadly Disease Comebacks

Overview

• Reports say Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considering changes that could push the few companies making most childhood shots to stop selling them in the U.S., according to ProPublica.
• Responding to those signals, Stanford researchers Mathew Kiang and Nathan Lo ran thousands of simulations on polio, measles, rubella, and diphtheria under a long stretch with no vaccine supply.
• Across 25 years without shots, the model estimates more than 230,000 measles deaths, about 23,000 children paralyzed by polio, and roughly 41,000 babies born with congenital rubella syndrome.
• The study flags diphtheria as especially lethal, projecting an average of 138,000 deaths and warning that the disease can block airways and release a toxin that harms the heart and nerves.
• The authors call this a worst-case scenario because they assume 25 years with no access to vaccines and do not factor in parents seeking shots abroad or emergency steps to restore supply.