Overview
- The U.S. Space Force confirmed the reentry at 6:37 a.m. EDT on March 11 over the eastern Pacific near 2° south latitude and 255.3° east longitude.
- NASA said most of the 1,323‑pound spacecraft likely burned up, some components may have survived, and no injuries were reported, with an estimated casualty risk of about 1 in 4,200.
- The return occurred well ahead of the earlier 2034 estimate because the 2024 solar maximum increased thermospheric density and orbital drag.
- Prediction was challenging due to the probe’s highly elliptical orbit, and Space Force sensors detected the reentry fireball.
- Launched in 2012 and deactivated in 2019, the mission’s data still informs space‑weather forecasting; the risk assessment exceeded the U.S. <1‑in‑10,000 guideline for planned reentries, and the twin Probe B is expected to reenter after about 2030.