Overview
- In July 2026 the University of Warwick team presented a technique that finds a sudden late‑cycle 'switch‑off' when the sun's most violent space weather ends.
- The researchers say the number of sunspots at that switch‑off correlates with the peak strength of the following cycle, allowing forecasts about six to seven years before maximum.
- Applying the method produced an early, provisional forecast that Solar Cycle 26 will be moderate, with a peak sunspot count near 100–120, but the team says the estimate will be final once Cycle 25 reaches its switch‑off around 2028.
- The proposed physical mechanism is that active regions moving within about 15 degrees of the solar equator enter a zone of weaker differential rotation that stops the process that powers extreme coronal mass ejections.
- If the correlation holds across more cycles, the longer lead time could let satellite operators, grid managers and airlines plan hardware and operational changes years in advance to reduce risks from large geomagnetic storms such as the 1989 Hydro‑Québec outage or the 1859 Carrington event.