Overview
- Several outlets this week, citing IranWire and Israeli media, reported that senior Iranian officials believe Mojtaba Khamenei is in an extremely critical condition and may have been hospitalized, though no independent verification exists.
- Iranian state‑linked Mehr News released an undated video purporting to show Khamenei but analysts and social media users say its date and authenticity are unverified and the footage may be old.
- President Masoud Pezeshkian has said direct contact with the supreme leader is ‘‘very difficult,’’ and multiple reports say cabinet ministers have not met him since the Feb. 28 attack that killed his father and wounded him.
- Iran’s constitution (Article 111) calls for a three‑member council to assume duties if the leader is incapacitated and the 88‑member Assembly of Experts to pick a successor, a process that could empower security institutions during a transition.
- Analysts and reporting say Khamenei’s prolonged absence is already shifting real authority to a collective of security figures and the IRGC, which could affect negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, military strategy and daily life for Iranians.