Overview
- Project Eleven warns a quantum computer that can break today’s blockchain signatures is likely by 2033 and could appear as early as 2030.
- The report points to recent Google research that cut the estimated need to about 1,200 logical qubits with under 90 minutes to run the attack on superconducting hardware.
- Analysts estimate roughly 6.9 million Bitcoin and over 65% of ETH sit in addresses with public keys already on-chain, which would let an attacker recover keys and drain funds once the capability exists.
- Because major upgrades have taken years in the past, the authors urge immediate cryptographic inventories, post-quantum key exchange for off-chain systems, and design work for on-chain signature upgrades.
- Other internet services have begun adopting post-quantum methods, and separate Harvard commentary says faster fault-tolerance progress may pull timelines forward by five to ten years, which could force users to rotate wallets and accept larger signatures and higher fees.