Overview
- A fresh round of U.S. strikes on Iran and Iran‑aligned groups, followed by Iran’s reported missile and tanker attacks, triggered a sharp oil-price surge on Wednesday that pushed Brent toward $91 a barrel.
- Ship-tracking data and industry reports show tankers continued to use alternatives such as passages through Bab el‑Mandeb and Saudi bypass pipelines, and flow increases on July 28–31 helped prices retrace from their spike.
- U.S. commercial crude stocks fell more than expected and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stands at multi‑decade lows, reducing the market’s cushion against further supply shocks.
- Higher war‑risk insurance and freight costs, plus the Houthis’ expansion of attacks to Red Sea routes, have raised the cost of moving fuel and kept global supply risk elevated.
- Policy and market responses are emerging: Saudi Arabia is building a multinational maritime defense effort, lawmakers are proposing windfall‑profit taxes, and traders warn prices remain vulnerable if fighting widens.