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Renegade Favored From Risky Rail in Wide-Open Kentucky Derby

The No. 1 post has many handicappers fading the favorite.

Overview

  • The 152nd Kentucky Derby, which runs Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET, will send a full field of 20 from the gate at Churchill Downs.
  • Morning-line odds list Renegade at 4-1 with Commandment and Further Ado at 6-1, Chief Wallabee at 8-1, and The Puma at 10-1.
  • Renegade drew the rail in Post 1, and no winner has come from that spot since 1986, a key reason experts at outlets like SportsLine are looking elsewhere.
  • Form from the prep races is shaping picks, as Florida Derby winner Commandment carries a four-race streak, The Puma and Chief Wallabee exited that same race with close finishes, and Arkansas Derby winners have rarely converted in Louisville.
  • With a tight odds board and no fillies in the field, betting focus has shifted to value and exotic tickets such as exactas and trifectas highlighted by handicappers in final previews.