Overview
- A June 1, 2026 New York Fed study estimates that exposure to remote work accounts for about 64 percent of the increase in unemployment for college graduates under 29 since the pandemic.
- The authors report that young college graduates’ unemployment rose from roughly 3.1 percent on average in 2017–19 to about 3.7 percent in 2022–25, with the rise concentrated in occupations that can be done remotely.
- Proprietary hiring and performance data from a large Fortune 500 firm show that employees who work next to colleagues receive more feedback and mentorship and produce higher‑quality work, benefits that fall sharply with physical distance and hurt younger workers most.
- The firm-level record shows it hired fewer inexperienced workers during office closures and returned to more junior hiring after reopening, but roles kept on distributed teams continued to favor experienced hires.
- Because the unemployment surge began before rapid generative‑AI diffusion, the study says remote work is the primary driver so far, and it warns that return‑to‑office choices and future tech shifts could shape early‑career prospects and long‑term earnings.