Overview
- A two‑week ceasefire announced Wednesday between the United States and Iran set off a global relief rally, with U.S. oil posting its biggest one‑day fall in five years and stocks jumping worldwide.
- Within 48 hours, Iran’s parliament speaker said parts of the proposal were violated and officials warned of a pullout over strikes in Lebanon, tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz stayed tight, Brent climbed back near $97, and India’s Sensex fell 931 points.
- Bitcoin jumped above $72,000 on the ceasefire news then slipped back near $71,000 after the withdrawal threat, with about $280 million in bearish futures positions liquidated during the spike and Morgan Stanley’s new spot Bitcoin ETF taking in roughly $34 million on day one.
- Traders marked up the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts after the truce, but Fed minutes pointed to a two‑sided policy path and the oil rebound is reviving concern that energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer.
- Talks are slated for Friday in Islamabad and investors are watching for verified reopening of Strait of Hormuz traffic, a chokepoint that carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil and directly feeds into fuel prices and inflation.