Regulators Say Data-Center Buildout Could Push PJM Into Frequent Shortages by 2030

Overview

• Pennsylvania regulators released a Synapse-commissioned analysis Wednesday that shows loss-of-load events could climb from about one every ten years to as many as 13 per year by 2030 if large data centers keep connecting and no new generation is built.
• PJM projects roughly 32 gigawatts of added peak demand by 2030, with about 30 gigawatts coming from data centers, making those facilities the main driver of tighter reserves across the 13-state PJM grid.
• The risk follows a stressed summer when PJM took emergency steps and the U.S. Department of Energy issued emergency orders to avoid blackouts, and PJM’s August capacity auction failed to secure about 6,831 megawatts of needed supply.
• State officials are proposing tools to limit the threat, including a large-load tariff, requiring new data centers to bring on-site power, and tighter interconnection and planning rules to prevent costs and outages from falling on residential ratepayers.
• If unchecked, the modeled outcomes could force more fossil-fuel generation and faster transmission builds to meet demand, raise consumer bills to pay for new capacity, and shift the policy debate to coordinated federal, regional and state action to manage growth.