Regional Banks Set 2026 Guidance for Higher-for-Longer After Q1 Results

Overview

• - Large regionals, including Fifth Third, Truist, Regions, F.N.B., and Ally, used Friday earnings calls to reset full‑year outlooks to no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
• - Loan growth leaned on relationship‑based commercial and industrial lending, with banks highlighting middle‑market clients and avoiding higher‑risk nonbank and private‑credit channels.
• - Capital returns are switching back on as boards authorize buybacks and dividend moves, including F.N.B.’s new $250 million repurchase capacity and Truist lifting its 2026 buyback plan to $5 billion.
• - Banks are stepping up technology and AI spending to cut costs and lift sales, from Truist’s AI tools that reduce call‑center work to F.N.B.’s planned year‑end customer data platform and Independent Bank’s new digital innovation office.
• - Credit teams kept qualitative reserve overlays for geopolitical uncertainty and continued to trim commercial real estate exposure, with examples including Regions’ Middle East‑related reserve add and F.N.B.’s lower CRE concentration.