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2mo ago

Reform UK Strengthens Lead as Tory Defections Grow and Labour Stumbles Toward Key By‑Election

Projections indicate that around 30% of the vote could deliver Reform a Commons majority under first‑past‑the‑post.

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Keir Starmer
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Overview

  • Recent national polls place Reform UK in first with roughly 25–32% support, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, according to Ipsos, YouGov and BMG surveys from late January.
  • Labour’s crisis deepens ahead of a likely 26 February by‑election in Manchester’s Gorton and Denton after the party blocked popular mayor Andy Burnham from running and selected local councillor Angeliki Stogia.
  • Reform UK has nominated author and academic Matt Goodwin for the Manchester seat, while the Greens are targeting younger voters with candidate Hannah Spencer.
  • A stream of high‑profile Conservative figures has joined Reform in recent weeks, including Robert Jenrick, Nadhim Zahawi, Andrew Rosindell and Suella Braverman.
  • Ipsos reports historically poor ratings for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his government, and Electoral Calculus suggests Reform’s current vote share could translate into a large seat haul as the 7 May local and regional elections loom.