Overview
- YouGov surveyed 1,113 Scots from January 8–14, finding the SNP at 34% on the constituency vote and 29% on the list, with Reform UK on 20% for both and Scottish Labour on 15%.
- Based on these shares, Curtice’s model projects roughly 60 MSPs for the SNP, 23 for Reform, 15 for Labour, 13 for the Conservatives, 10 for the Greens and 8 for the Liberal Democrats if replicated on election day.
- Reform’s 20% represents a breakthrough from its 0.2% list vote in 2021, indicating the party would enter Holyrood for the first time if these numbers hold.
- Labour’s support has fractured since 2024, with only 32% of its voters from that election intending to back it in May, while 14% shift to Reform and 13% to the SNP.
- The poll records 75% disapproval of the UK government and about one in ten approval for Sir Keir Starmer, as voters prioritise the economy, health and immigration, and only 35% view an SNP majority as a referendum mandate versus 46% who do not.