Overview
- The chancellor will deliver a brief update in the Commons on 3 March, with no major tax or spending measures expected as she maintains one big fiscal event per year in the autumn.
- The OBR will release updated economic and fiscal forecasts but will not formally assess compliance with fiscal rules until the autumn under the new once‑yearly schedule.
- Following last year’s leak and the resignation of OBR chair Richard Hughes, the watchdog remains without a permanent chair and its report will be published by the Treasury on gov.uk.
- Analysts expect the government’s fiscal headroom to be little changed from November’s £21.7bn, with estimates near £24bn, though a notably higher or lower figure could trigger political pressure.
- The IFS flags medium‑term risks as net migration falls sharply from 2023 peaks to around 204,000 provisionally for 2025 and tax receipts prove subdued, potentially forcing tougher choices at the autumn Budget.