Overview
- Reeves argued working people will be better off but announced no new tax or spending, sticking to the pledge of a single major fiscal event each year.
- The OBR now sees GDP rising 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% in November, with upgrades to 1.6% for both 2027 and 2028.
- It projects CPI inflation easing to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% from 2027, with unemployment peaking around 5.3% this year before falling to about 4.1% by the end of the forecast.
- Borrowing is forecast nearly £18bn lower than in the autumn outlook, with public finances improving relative to previous estimates.
- The watchdog warned the Middle East escalation could push up energy prices and upend its central case, and Reeves will meet North Sea industry leaders as any sustained spike would filter into Ofgem’s July price cap.