Overview
- This month daily sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific climbed to a record level, with observations showing about 3.08°C above the 1991–2020 average and exceeding prior daily highs.
- NOAA has not formally declared this the strongest El Niño because its official ranking depends on a rolling three-month average and the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, which measure multi-month strength rather than single-day peaks.
- National and international agencies, including the Met Office and the WMO, have issued forecasts and warnings and expect the event to persist into winter 2026–27, with the Met Office highlighting increased odds of wetter, stormier conditions for northwest Europe.
- The event is already changing tropical cyclone patterns by increasing wind shear over the Atlantic and suppressing hurricane formation there while contributing to rapid intensification of Pacific storms such as Hurricane Polo and the system threatening Hawai‘i.
- Researchers estimate the ocean heat released by this El Niño could push global land temperatures higher and contribute to roughly 450,000 additional heat-related deaths by February 2027 while worsening drought, crop stress, wildfire risk, and pressure on water supplies.