Overview
- HMRC figures, published Thursday, show about 10.2 million people aged 65 and over are expected to pay income tax in 2026–27, up from roughly 7.1 million in 2021–22.
- The number has risen because the personal allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021 while the Triple Lock has steadily increased state pension payments so the full new State Pension will exceed the allowance from April 2027.
- The Treasury has told the OBR it currently assumes the state pension age will reach 68 in 2037–39, a move that analysts say would affect around five million people now aged about 49–55 and could cost them about one year’s pension (roughly £12,500).
- The government has pledged that people whose only income is the full state pension will not pay tax but officials say primary legislation and operational rules are needed and no detailed implementation has yet been published.
- Experts and advisers urge people to check National Insurance records, consider voluntary NI contributions, and increase private pension saving because OBR modelling shows scrapping the Triple Lock for an earnings link would cut long‑run state pension costs and the policy debate over affordability is intensifying.