Overview
- U.S. crude briefly surged near $115 before easing toward $100, and the national average for gasoline reached $3.478 per gallon after Iran curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Kalshi’s market put 2026 recession odds at 33% on Monday from 22% a week earlier, while Polymarket sat near 30% after a Sunday night spike to 43%.
- February payrolls declined by roughly 92,000 with earlier months revised lower, and stocks in the U.S., Europe and Asia fell as investors reassessed growth and inflation risks.
- The White House said short‑term disruptions are expected and insisted the economy remains on track, as President Trump called higher oil a “very small price to pay” to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat.
- Policy pressure intensified with Democrats urging a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release and criticism mounting over a Treasury waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil until April 4.