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RBI Signals Possible Lower Inflation Target and Narrower Band If Stability Holds

The central bank sets a high bar, tying any change to several years of strong growth with low, steady prices.

Overview

  • Poonam Gupta, speaking Tuesday at an NCAER seminar, said India could consider cutting the 4% inflation goal and tightening the plus‑or‑minus 2% band in the next review if robust growth and stable prices continue for several years.
  • The government in March kept the current framework in place through March 31, 2031, asking the RBI to target headline consumer inflation at 4% within a 2% to 6% range.
  • Gupta cautioned that frequent external shocks, such as energy and geopolitics, still argue for the predictability and flexibility of the existing band if global strains persist.
  • The RBI projects headline inflation to average about 4.6% in FY27, and it plans to refine how it tracks core inflation and to step up plain‑language communication.
  • Since 2016, inflation targeting—setting a clear CPI goal to guide interest rates—has lowered average inflation from about 8.1% to 4.6% and reduced volatility, and most consultation feedback backed keeping the 4% anchor and headline CPI focus.