Overview
- The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to leave the policy rate at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance after its Feb 4–6 review.
- The central bank raised its FY26 real GDP forecast to 7.4% and lifted Q1–Q2 FY27 growth projections to 6.9% and 7.0%, deferring full‑year FY27 guidance until the new base‑year data arrive.
- Inflation projections were nudged higher, with Q1 and Q2 FY27 now seen at 4.0% and 4.2% and FY26 CPI estimated around 2.1%, even as current readings remain subdued.
- RBI officials cited recently concluded trade pacts with the US and EU—cutting tariffs on Indian goods to about 18%—as support for the growth outlook.
- Policymakers stressed liquidity management after roughly $30 billion in prior FX reserve sales tightened rupee liquidity and kept bond yields sticky, and proposed consumer‑protection measures including compensation up to Rs 25,000 for small‑value fraud.