Overview
- The central bank formally incorporated bullion into its inflation framework, estimating gold and silver contributed about 60–70 bps to the slight upgrade of FY26 CPI, now projected at 2.1%.
- The MPC left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance, with a unanimous vote on rates and one dissent on the stance.
- The RBI lifted growth projections, pegging FY26 GDP at 7.4% and revising Q1 and Q2 FY27 to 6.9% and 7.0%.
- Underlying pressures remain soft, with core inflation excluding gold at 2.6% in December even as precious‑metal prices stay volatile.
- Full‑year FY27 projections were deferred until the bank incorporates the new CPI on February 12 and GDP series on February 27, with risks flagged from geopolitics, energy prices, adverse weather and base effects.