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RBA Set for Close Call on Third Rate Rise as Oil Shock Lifts Costs

Most forecasters tip a 25 basis-point increase to 4.35%.

Overview

  • The Reserve Bank, which decides Tuesday, is widely expected to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%, the benchmark rate banks use to price loans.
  • Market odds put the chance of a rise at about three in four, which would lift mortgage repayments for many variable-rate borrowers.
  • Board members were split in March and analysts expect another tight vote as signs of weaker spending and softer housing counter the case to tighten.
  • A jump in fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict is pushing up transport and business expenses, raising the risk that higher prices spread beyond petrol.
  • Fresh RBA forecasts released with the decision will steer expectations, with Westpac tipping more hikes but ANZ, NAB, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche Bank and HSBC pointing to a pause after May.