Overview
- The RBA, which published its March minutes Tuesday, said it cannot plan the path for rates with confidence because the Middle East war clouds the outlook.
- The board lifted its benchmark cash rate by 0.25 points to 4.1% in a 5–4 vote, with most members wanting to move quickly to stop price expectations drifting higher.
- Policymakers said oil near $100 a barrel could push headline inflation to about 5% in the June quarter.
- Four members argued for waiting until May for clearer reads on growth, household spending, and the job market, yet they still saw more rate rises as likely.
- Markets now put the odds of a May increase near 60%, while major banks tip more hikes this year as a cut to the fuel excise may lift demand.