Overview
- Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting show a unanimous 25 bp increase to 3.85% after members judged inflation would linger above target without action.
- The board said risks to its inflation and employment mandates had shifted materially, noting demand now exceeds supply and the labour market remains firm.
- Officials observed materially easier financial conditions, with strong credit growth, rising house prices and faster mortgage lending undermining the assumed level of restraint.
- The RBA stated there is no preset path for rates and that it will do what is necessary to deliver price stability and full employment, as markets price a possible move to 4.10% by May.
- In New Zealand, Governor Anna Breman’s first meeting is expected to leave the cash rate at 2.25%, with attention on projections after Q4 CPI rose 3.1% year on year and food prices jumped, prompting some forecasts for hikes later in 2026.