Overview
- The RBA, which raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday in an 8–1 vote, cited higher fuel costs from the Middle East conflict and the risk they feed into broader prices.
- Fresh scenarios show a baseline peak in headline inflation near 4.8% in June, with adverse paths above 5.2% and unemployment trending toward 5% if energy disruptions persist.
- Major banks are divided on what comes next, with NAB and Westpac tipping another increase as soon as June while Commonwealth Bank and ANZ expect a hold at 4.35%.
- Mortgage holders will see higher repayments within weeks after all four big banks passed the latest increase on to customers.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers says next week’s budget will be responsible and, according to new briefings, will trim projected deficits as he avoids broad cash handouts the RBA warned could fuel demand.