Overview
- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% in a split decision, reversing two of three cuts made in 2025 and warning inflation could stay above target.
- Disrupted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, with Iran-linked attacks extending supply risks even as prices briefly ease.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Treasury is modelling scenarios with oil at $100–$120, with internal estimates showing GDP could be 0.6% lower by 2027 if the shock persists and inflation peaking higher.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to hold policy steady today, with analysts watching for projections that could trim or remove planned cuts in response to the oil-driven inflation risk.
- Rising borrowing costs are intensifying mortgage stress, with Domain reporting a larger share of income going to repayments and the latest hike adding about $120 a month to an average new $736,000 loan.